For 2022, EIC forecasts Thailand’s economy to grow 3.4% with recoveries in both domestic and external demand.
EIC expects the situation to improve in the beginning of the fourth quarter from a significantly higher rate of fully-vaccinated individuals, which would benefit confidence and domestic economic activity recovery.
Exports have continued to expand but should slightly slow throughout the rest of the year from a higher base and the spread of the Delta variant, which caused the global economy to decelerate and resulted in supply disruptions in many manufacturing supply chains in Thailand and emerging economies in ASEAN.
In addition, domestic spending would also recover from a resumption of economic activity close to normal levels. However, the recovery would be gradual due to a significantly lower tourist arrivals compared to normal times and headwinds from deep scarring effects during the past two years such as worsening business dynamism, fragile labor market, and high debt levels.