Despite global economic uncertainty, India’s foreign trade is likely to exceed USD 1.6 trillion this fiscal year, according to a global trade research report.
According to the global trade research, the USD 1.6 trillion would represent around 48% of India’s USD 3.4 trillion nominal GDP for the fiscal year ending in March 2023.
The higher trade-to-GDP ratio reflects the country’s high level of trade openness.
According to their analysis of the data by the global trade research company, the growth rate of service exports would be higher than that of products.
The global trade research company added that the higher growth rate in services exports compared to outbound shipments of goods has boosted India’s overall performance.
During April-March 2023, India’s exports of goods and services are expected to exceed USD 755 billion, representing an 11.6 percent increase over the same period last year (April-March 2022).
According to the research, India’s merchandise exports are expected to rise by approximately 5% to USD 442 billion this fiscal year. Similarly, service exports are expected to increase by 22.6% to USD 311.9 billion in 2022-23.
“For the fiscal year ending March 2023, India’s foreign trade (exports and imports of goods and services) is expected to exceed USD 1.6 trillion, or 48% of India’s nominal GDP of USD 3.4 trillion,” it added.
India’s foreign trade stood at USD 1.43 trillion in 2021-22.
Despite sectoral difficulties, strong trade data highlight trade’s rise as a key component of the Indian economy, according to the report.
Basic and processed agricultural products, fish, meat, dairy products, petroleum products, chemicals, diamonds, machinery, and automobiles are all expected to grow strongly.
China, Bangladesh, Singapore, the US, UAE, the Netherlands, the UK, and Germany are among the top export destinations.
Regarding the outlook for exports over the next fiscal year, the global trade research company said that 2023 would see most countries retreat home to avoid global obstacles.
The global trade research company continued, “Indian exports will be slightly affected by weak global demand and the recession in large economies but will benefit as the domestic economy appears resilient and exports from high-growth industries, such as electronics.”
Furthermore, the research showed that the expected value of petroleum products and coal exports this fiscal year would be roughly USD 98.2 billion, a 41 percent rise.
Similarly, export electronics and electrical machinery shipments are predicted to increase by 36% to USD 27.4 billion.
